[ { "team_name": "Spain", "official_team_name": "Spain", "display_name": "Spain", "fifa_team_code": "ESP", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 2, "elo_rating": 2165, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 3, "losses": 0, "goals_for": 31, "goals_against": 8 }, "rp8_power_index": 87, "attack_index": 72, "defense_index": 89, "form_index": 85, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "8–14%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Spain in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #2 and an Elo of 2165. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-3D-0L with a goal difference of +23, which shapes their form index. Head coach Luis DE LA FUENTE provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 8–14% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Spain", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/ESP", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Spain national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43969&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Argentina", "official_team_name": "Argentina", "display_name": "Argentina", "fifa_team_code": "ARG", "confederation": "CONMEBOL", "fifa_ranking": 3, "elo_rating": 2113, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 8, "draws": 1, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 19, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 81, "attack_index": 52, "defense_index": 85, "form_index": 79, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "8–14%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Argentina in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #3 and an Elo of 2113. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 8W-1D-1L with a goal difference of +9, which shapes their form index. Head coach Lionel SCALONI provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 8–14% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Argentina", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/ARG", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Argentina national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43922&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "France", "official_team_name": "France", "display_name": "France", "fifa_team_code": "FRA", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 1, "elo_rating": 2081, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 8, "draws": 1, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 23, "goals_against": 15 }, "rp8_power_index": 81, "attack_index": 64, "defense_index": 78, "form_index": 78, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "8–14%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places France in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #1 and an Elo of 2081. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 8W-1D-1L with a goal difference of +8, which shapes their form index. Head coach Didier DESCHAMPS provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 8–14% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - France", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/FRA", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - France national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43946&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "England", "official_team_name": "England", "display_name": "England", "fifa_team_code": "ENG", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 4, "elo_rating": 2020, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 1, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 21, "goals_against": 6 }, "rp8_power_index": 79, "attack_index": 60, "defense_index": 88, "form_index": 75, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "6–10%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places England in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #4 and an Elo of 2020. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-1D-2L with a goal difference of +15, which shapes their form index. Head coach Thomas TUCHEL provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 6–10% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - England", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/ENG", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - England national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43942&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Netherlands", "official_team_name": "Netherlands", "display_name": "Netherlands", "fifa_team_code": "NED", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 7, "elo_rating": 1961, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 3, "losses": 0, "goals_for": 30, "goals_against": 6 }, "rp8_power_index": 78, "attack_index": 55, "defense_index": 86, "form_index": 85, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "6–10%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Netherlands in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #7 and an Elo of 1961. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-3D-0L with a goal difference of +24, which shapes their form index. Head coach Ronald KOEMAN provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 6–10% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Netherlands", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/NED", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Netherlands national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43960&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Portugal", "official_team_name": "Portugal", "display_name": "Portugal", "fifa_team_code": "POR", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 5, "elo_rating": 1984, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 6, "draws": 3, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 26, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 76, "attack_index": 53, "defense_index": 82, "form_index": 74, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "6–10%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Portugal in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #5 and an Elo of 1984. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 6W-3D-1L with a goal difference of +16, which shapes their form index. Head coach Roberto MARTINEZ provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 6–10% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Portugal", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/POR", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Portugal national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugal_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43963&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Norway", "official_team_name": "Norway", "display_name": "Norway", "fifa_team_code": "NOR", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 31, "elo_rating": 1912, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 2, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 31, "goals_against": 6 }, "rp8_power_index": 76, "attack_index": 65, "defense_index": 82, "form_index": 84, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "6–10%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Norway in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #31 and an Elo of 1912. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-2D-1L with a goal difference of +25, which shapes their form index. Head coach Stale SOLBAKKEN provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 6–10% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Norway", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/NOR", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Norway national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43961&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Senegal", "official_team_name": "Senegal", "display_name": "Senegal", "fifa_team_code": "SEN", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 14, "elo_rating": 1878, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 9, "draws": 1, "losses": 0, "goals_for": 22, "goals_against": 7 }, "rp8_power_index": 75, "attack_index": 47, "defense_index": 82, "form_index": 89, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "6–10%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Senegal in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #14 and an Elo of 1878. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 9W-1D-0L with a goal difference of +15, which shapes their form index. Head coach Pape THIAW provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 6–10% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Senegal", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/SEN", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Senegal national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senegal_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43879&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Croatia", "official_team_name": "Croatia", "display_name": "Croatia", "fifa_team_code": "CRO", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 11, "elo_rating": 1930, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 8, "draws": 1, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 23, "goals_against": 14 }, "rp8_power_index": 75, "attack_index": 59, "defense_index": 75, "form_index": 79, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Top Contender", "championship_probability_range": "6–10%", "knockout_potential": "Very High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Croatia in the 'Top Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #11 and an Elo of 1930. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 8W-1D-1L with a goal difference of +9, which shapes their form index. Head coach Zlatko DALIC provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 6–10% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Croatia", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/CRO", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Croatia national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43938&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Belgium", "official_team_name": "Belgium", "display_name": "Belgium", "fifa_team_code": "BEL", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 9, "elo_rating": 1866, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 6, "draws": 4, "losses": 0, "goals_for": 35, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 74, "attack_index": 56, "defense_index": 78, "form_index": 81, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "4–8%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Belgium in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #9 and an Elo of 1866. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 6W-4D-0L with a goal difference of +25, which shapes their form index. Head coach Rudi GARCIA provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 4–8% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Belgium", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/BEL", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Belgium national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgium_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43935&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Austria", "official_team_name": "Austria", "display_name": "Austria", "fifa_team_code": "AUT", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 24, "elo_rating": 1827, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 8, "draws": 1, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 28, "goals_against": 5 }, "rp8_power_index": 74, "attack_index": 60, "defense_index": 82, "form_index": 87, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "4–8%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Austria in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #24 and an Elo of 1827. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 8W-1D-1L with a goal difference of +23, which shapes their form index. Head coach Ralf RANGNICK provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 4–8% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Austria", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/AUT", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Austria national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43934&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Brazil", "official_team_name": "Brazil", "display_name": "Brazil", "fifa_team_code": "BRA", "confederation": "CONMEBOL", "fifa_ranking": 6, "elo_rating": 1984, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 5, "draws": 2, "losses": 3, "goals_for": 18, "goals_against": 8 }, "rp8_power_index": 73, "attack_index": 47, "defense_index": 84, "form_index": 61, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "4–8%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Brazil in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #6 and an Elo of 1984. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 5W-2D-3L with a goal difference of +10, which shapes their form index. Head coach Carlo ANCELOTTI provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 4–8% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Brazil", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/BRA", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Brazil national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43924&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Colombia", "official_team_name": "Colombia", "display_name": "Colombia", "fifa_team_code": "COL", "confederation": "CONMEBOL", "fifa_ranking": 13, "elo_rating": 1975, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 5, "draws": 3, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 17, "goals_against": 14 }, "rp8_power_index": 71, "attack_index": 46, "defense_index": 76, "form_index": 59, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "4–8%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Colombia in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #13 and an Elo of 1975. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 5W-3D-2L with a goal difference of +3, which shapes their form index. Head coach Nestor LORENZO provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 4–8% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Colombia", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/COL", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Colombia national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombia_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43926&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Germany", "official_team_name": "Germany", "display_name": "Germany", "fifa_team_code": "GER", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 10, "elo_rating": 1923, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 0, "losses": 3, "goals_for": 23, "goals_against": 11 }, "rp8_power_index": 71, "attack_index": 39, "defense_index": 78, "form_index": 71, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "4–8%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Germany in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #10 and an Elo of 1923. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-0D-3L with a goal difference of +12, which shapes their form index. Head coach Julian NAGELSMANN provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 4–8% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Germany", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/GER", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Germany national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43948&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Switzerland", "official_team_name": "Switzerland", "display_name": "Switzerland", "fifa_team_code": "SUI", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 19, "elo_rating": 1889, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 6, "draws": 3, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 23, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 71, "attack_index": 48, "defense_index": 78, "form_index": 72, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "4–8%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Switzerland in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #19 and an Elo of 1889. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 6W-3D-1L with a goal difference of +13, which shapes their form index. Head coach Murat YAKIN provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 4–8% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Switzerland", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/SUI", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Switzerland national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43971&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Türkiye", "official_team_name": "Türkiye", "display_name": "Türkiye", "fifa_team_code": "TUR", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 22, "elo_rating": 1902, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 1, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 22, "goals_against": 13 }, "rp8_power_index": 71, "attack_index": 48, "defense_index": 74, "form_index": 72, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "4–8%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Türkiye in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #22 and an Elo of 1902. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-1D-2L with a goal difference of +9, which shapes their form index. Head coach Vincenzo MONTELLA provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 4–8% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Türkiye", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/TUR", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Turkey national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43972&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Japan", "official_team_name": "Japan", "display_name": "Japan", "fifa_team_code": "JPN", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 18, "elo_rating": 1904, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 6, "draws": 2, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 18, "goals_against": 7 }, "rp8_power_index": 70, "attack_index": 45, "defense_index": 82, "form_index": 68, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "4–8%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Japan in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #18 and an Elo of 1904. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 6W-2D-2L with a goal difference of +11, which shapes their form index. Head coach Hajime MORIYASU provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 4–8% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Japan", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/JPN", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Japan national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43819&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Australia", "official_team_name": "Australia", "display_name": "Australia", "fifa_team_code": "AUS", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 27, "elo_rating": 1783, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 0, "losses": 3, "goals_for": 19, "goals_against": 5 }, "rp8_power_index": 68, "attack_index": 52, "defense_index": 80, "form_index": 72, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Low", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Australia in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #27 and an Elo of 1783. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-0D-3L with a goal difference of +14, which shapes their form index. Head coach Tony POPOVIC provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Australia", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/AUS", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Australia men's national soccer team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia_men's_national_soccer_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43976&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Morocco", "official_team_name": "Morocco", "display_name": "Morocco", "fifa_team_code": "MAR", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 8, "elo_rating": 1821, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 6, "draws": 3, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 10, "goals_against": 11 }, "rp8_power_index": 67, "attack_index": 36, "defense_index": 76, "form_index": 63, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Morocco in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #8 and an Elo of 1821. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 6W-3D-1L with a goal difference of -1, which shapes their form index. Head coach Mohamed OUAHBI provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Morocco", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/MAR", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Morocco national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morocco_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43872&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Egypt", "official_team_name": "Egypt", "display_name": "Egypt", "fifa_team_code": "EGY", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 29, "elo_rating": 1689, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 6, "draws": 3, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 16, "goals_against": 5 }, "rp8_power_index": 66, "attack_index": 57, "defense_index": 78, "form_index": 71, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Egypt in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #29 and an Elo of 1689. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 6W-3D-1L with a goal difference of +11, which shapes their form index. Head coach HOSSAM HASSAN provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Egypt", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/EGY", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Egypt national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43855&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Ecuador", "official_team_name": "Ecuador", "display_name": "Ecuador", "fifa_team_code": "ECU", "confederation": "CONMEBOL", "fifa_ranking": 23, "elo_rating": 1933, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 2, "draws": 8, "losses": 0, "goals_for": 7, "goals_against": 4 }, "rp8_power_index": 66, "attack_index": 37, "defense_index": 86, "form_index": 49, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Ecuador in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #23 and an Elo of 1933. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 2W-8D-0L with a goal difference of +3, which shapes their form index. Head coach Sebastian BECCACECE provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Ecuador", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/ECU", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Ecuador national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecuador_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43927&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Algeria", "official_team_name": "Algeria", "display_name": "Algeria", "fifa_team_code": "ALG", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 28, "elo_rating": 1743, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 2, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 17, "goals_against": 11 }, "rp8_power_index": 66, "attack_index": 49, "defense_index": 72, "form_index": 72, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Algeria in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #28 and an Elo of 1743. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-2D-1L with a goal difference of +6, which shapes their form index. Head coach Vladimir PETKOVIC provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Algeria", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/ALG", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Algeria national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43843&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Mexico", "official_team_name": "Mexico", "display_name": "Mexico", "fifa_team_code": "MEX", "confederation": "CONCACAF", "fifa_ranking": 15, "elo_rating": 1858, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 3, "draws": 5, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 11, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 64, "attack_index": 38, "defense_index": 77, "form_index": 48, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Mexico in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #15 and an Elo of 1858. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 3W-5D-2L with a goal difference of +1, which shapes their form index. Head coach Javier AGUIRRE provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official World Cup 2026 Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Mexico", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/MEX", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Mexico national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43911&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Uruguay", "official_team_name": "Uruguay", "display_name": "Uruguay", "fifa_team_code": "URU", "confederation": "CONMEBOL", "fifa_ranking": 17, "elo_rating": 1892, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 4, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 9, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 64, "attack_index": 27, "defense_index": 78, "form_index": 52, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Uruguay in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #17 and an Elo of 1892. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-4D-2L with a goal difference of -1, which shapes their form index. Head coach Marcelo BIELSA provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Uruguay", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/URU", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Uruguay national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uruguay_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43930&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Canada", "official_team_name": "Canada", "display_name": "Canada", "fifa_team_code": "CAN", "confederation": "CONCACAF", "fifa_ranking": 30, "elo_rating": 1784, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 5, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 8, "goals_against": 6 }, "rp8_power_index": 63, "attack_index": 43, "defense_index": 79, "form_index": 56, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Canada in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #30 and an Elo of 1784. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-5D-1L with a goal difference of +2, which shapes their form index. Head coach Jesse MARSCH provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official World Cup 2026 Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Canada", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/CAN", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Canada men's national soccer team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_men's_national_soccer_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43899&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "United States", "official_team_name": "United States", "display_name": "United States", "fifa_team_code": "USA", "confederation": "CONCACAF", "fifa_ranking": 16, "elo_rating": 1721, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 5, "draws": 1, "losses": 4, "goals_for": 17, "goals_against": 16 }, "rp8_power_index": 62, "attack_index": 48, "defense_index": 66, "form_index": 53, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places United States in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #16 and an Elo of 1721. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 5W-1D-4L with a goal difference of +1, which shapes their form index. Head coach Mauricio POCHETTINO provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official World Cup 2026 Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - United States", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/USA", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - United States men's national soccer team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_men's_national_soccer_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43921&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "South Korea", "official_team_name": "Korea Republic", "display_name": "South Korea", "fifa_team_code": "KOR", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 25, "elo_rating": 1752, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 6, "draws": 1, "losses": 3, "goals_for": 15, "goals_against": 12 }, "rp8_power_index": 62, "attack_index": 38, "defense_index": 71, "form_index": 61, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Strong Contender", "championship_probability_range": "3–6%", "knockout_potential": "High", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places South Korea in the 'Strong Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #25 and an Elo of 1752. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 6W-1D-3L with a goal difference of +3, which shapes their form index. Head coach HONG Myungbo provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 3–6% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Korea Republic", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/KOR", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - South Korea national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korea_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43822&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Iran", "official_team_name": "IR Iran", "display_name": "Iran", "fifa_team_code": "IRN", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 21, "elo_rating": 1760, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 3, "losses": 3, "goals_for": 16, "goals_against": 7 }, "rp8_power_index": 61, "attack_index": 29, "defense_index": 78, "form_index": 55, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Iran in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #21 and an Elo of 1760. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-3D-3L with a goal difference of +9, which shapes their form index. Head coach Amir GHALEHNOY provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - IR Iran", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/IRN", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Iran national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43817&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Uzbekistan", "official_team_name": "Uzbekistan", "display_name": "Uzbekistan", "fifa_team_code": "UZB", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 50, "elo_rating": 1727, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 5, "draws": 4, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 12, "goals_against": 7 }, "rp8_power_index": 61, "attack_index": 45, "defense_index": 74, "form_index": 62, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Uzbekistan in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #50 and an Elo of 1727. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 5W-4D-1L with a goal difference of +5, which shapes their form index. Head coach Fabio CANNAVARO provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Uzbekistan", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/UZB", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Uzbekistan national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uzbekistan_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=44005&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Côte d'Ivoire", "official_team_name": "Côte d'Ivoire", "display_name": "Côte d'Ivoire", "fifa_team_code": "CIV", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 34, "elo_rating": 1676, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 1, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 16, "goals_against": 11 }, "rp8_power_index": 61, "attack_index": 36, "defense_index": 69, "form_index": 69, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Côte d'Ivoire in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #34 and an Elo of 1676. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-1D-2L with a goal difference of +5, which shapes their form index. Head coach Emerse FAE provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Côte d'Ivoire", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/CIV", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Ivory Coast national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivory_Coast_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43854&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Czechia", "official_team_name": "Czechia", "display_name": "Czechia", "fifa_team_code": "CZE", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 41, "elo_rating": 1726, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 4, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 18, "goals_against": 12 }, "rp8_power_index": 61, "attack_index": 49, "defense_index": 68, "form_index": 56, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Czechia in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #41 and an Elo of 1726. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-4D-2L with a goal difference of +6, which shapes their form index. Head coach Miroslav KOUBEK provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Czechia", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/CZE", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Czech Republic national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republic_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43995&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Paraguay", "official_team_name": "Paraguay", "display_name": "Paraguay", "fifa_team_code": "PAR", "confederation": "CONMEBOL", "fifa_ranking": 40, "elo_rating": 1833, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 2, "losses": 4, "goals_for": 10, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 60, "attack_index": 36, "defense_index": 74, "form_index": 48, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Paraguay in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #40 and an Elo of 1833. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-2D-4L with a goal difference of +0, which shapes their form index. Head coach Gustavo ALFARO provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/world-cup-2026-who-has-qualified", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Paraguay", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/PAR", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Paraguay national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguay_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43928&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Panama", "official_team_name": "Panama", "display_name": "Panama", "fifa_team_code": "PAN", "confederation": "CONCACAF", "fifa_ranking": 33, "elo_rating": 1737, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 5, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 13, "goals_against": 8 }, "rp8_power_index": 59, "attack_index": 26, "defense_index": 75, "form_index": 58, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Panama in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #33 and an Elo of 1737. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-5D-1L with a goal difference of +5, which shapes their form index. Head coach Thomas CHRISTIANSEN provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official World Cup 2026 Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/news/road-to-2026-fifa-world-cup-haiti/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Panama", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/PAN", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Panama national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43914&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Sweden", "official_team_name": "Sweden", "display_name": "Sweden", "fifa_team_code": "SWE", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 38, "elo_rating": 1719, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 2, "losses": 4, "goals_for": 14, "goals_against": 20 }, "rp8_power_index": 59, "attack_index": 56, "defense_index": 59, "form_index": 44, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "High", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Sweden in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #38 and an Elo of 1719. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-2D-4L with a goal difference of -6, which shapes their form index. Head coach Graham POTTER provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Sweden", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/SWE", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Sweden men's national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden_men's_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43970&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Scotland", "official_team_name": "Scotland", "display_name": "Scotland", "fifa_team_code": "SCO", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 43, "elo_rating": 1767, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 5, "draws": 1, "losses": 4, "goals_for": 17, "goals_against": 13 }, "rp8_power_index": 58, "attack_index": 30, "defense_index": 68, "form_index": 55, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Scotland in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #43 and an Elo of 1767. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 5W-1D-4L with a goal difference of +4, which shapes their form index. Head coach Steve CLARKE provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Scotland", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/SCO", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Scotland national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43967&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Iraq", "official_team_name": "Iraq", "display_name": "Iraq", "fifa_team_code": "IRQ", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 57, "elo_rating": 1607, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 6, "draws": 2, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 12, "goals_against": 6 }, "rp8_power_index": 57, "attack_index": 41, "defense_index": 71, "form_index": 65, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Iraq in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #57 and an Elo of 1607. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 6W-2D-2L with a goal difference of +6, which shapes their form index. Head coach Graham ARNOLD provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Iraq", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/IRQ", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Iraq national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43818&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "DR Congo", "official_team_name": "Congo DR", "display_name": "DR Congo", "fifa_team_code": "COD", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 46, "elo_rating": 1655, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 7, "draws": 2, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 6, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 57, "attack_index": 28, "defense_index": 69, "form_index": 66, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places DR Congo in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #46 and an Elo of 1655. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 7W-2D-1L with a goal difference of -4, which shapes their form index. Head coach Sebastien DESABRE provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Congo DR", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/COD", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - DR Congo national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DR_Congo_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=20014&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Tunisia", "official_team_name": "Tunisia", "display_name": "Tunisia", "fifa_team_code": "TUN", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 44, "elo_rating": 1636, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 4, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 15, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 56, "attack_index": 34, "defense_index": 68, "form_index": 55, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Tunisia in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #44 and an Elo of 1636. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-4D-2L with a goal difference of +5, which shapes their form index. Head coach Sabri LAMOUCHI provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Tunisia", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/TUN", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Tunisia national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisia_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43888&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Jordan", "official_team_name": "Jordan", "display_name": "Jordan", "fifa_team_code": "JOR", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 63, "elo_rating": 1690, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 5, "draws": 3, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 12, "goals_against": 18 }, "rp8_power_index": 55, "attack_index": 44, "defense_index": 57, "form_index": 53, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Jordan in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #63 and an Elo of 1690. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 5W-3D-2L with a goal difference of -6, which shapes their form index. Head coach Jamal SELLAMI provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Jordan", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/JOR", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Jordan national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43820&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "official_team_name": "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "display_name": "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "fifa_team_code": "BIH", "confederation": "UEFA", "fifa_ranking": 65, "elo_rating": 1594, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 4, "losses": 2, "goals_for": 21, "goals_against": 11 }, "rp8_power_index": 54, "attack_index": 47, "defense_index": 63, "form_index": 58, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #65 and an Elo of 1594. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-4D-2L with a goal difference of +10, which shapes their form index. Head coach Sergej BARBAREZ provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "UEFA Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/029f-1f318027c4dd-8e9bab478b48-1000--world-cup-2026-which-european-teams-have-qualified/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Bosnia and Herzegovina", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/BIH", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Bosnia and Herzegovina national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=44037&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Cabo Verde", "official_team_name": "Cabo Verde", "display_name": "Cabo Verde", "fifa_team_code": "CPV", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 69, "elo_rating": 1549, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 5, "losses": 1, "goals_for": 19, "goals_against": 8 }, "rp8_power_index": 53, "attack_index": 45, "defense_index": 65, "form_index": 61, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Outside Contender", "championship_probability_range": "1–3%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "Medium", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Cabo Verde in the 'Outside Contender' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #69 and an Elo of 1549. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-5D-1L with a goal difference of +11, which shapes their form index. Head coach BUBISTA provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 1–3% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Cabo Verde", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/CPV", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Cape Verde national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43850&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Saudi Arabia", "official_team_name": "Saudi Arabia", "display_name": "Saudi Arabia", "fifa_team_code": "KSA", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 61, "elo_rating": 1568, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 1, "losses": 5, "goals_for": 7, "goals_against": 15 }, "rp8_power_index": 49, "attack_index": 36, "defense_index": 58, "form_index": 41, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Dark Horse", "championship_probability_range": "0.5–2%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "High", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Saudi Arabia in the 'Dark Horse' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #61 and an Elo of 1568. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-1D-5L with a goal difference of -8, which shapes their form index. Head coach Georgios DONIS provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 0.5–2% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Saudi Arabia", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/KSA", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Saudi Arabia national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43835&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "South Africa", "official_team_name": "South Africa", "display_name": "South Africa", "fifa_team_code": "RSA", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 60, "elo_rating": 1524, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 3, "losses": 3, "goals_for": 15, "goals_against": 11 }, "rp8_power_index": 49, "attack_index": 31, "defense_index": 62, "form_index": 52, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Dark Horse", "championship_probability_range": "0.5–2%", "knockout_potential": "Medium", "upset_risk": "High", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places South Africa in the 'Dark Horse' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #60 and an Elo of 1524. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-3D-3L with a goal difference of +4, which shapes their form index. Head coach Hugo BROOS provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 0.5–2% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - South Africa", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/RSA", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - South Africa national soccer team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_national_soccer_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43883&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Haiti", "official_team_name": "Haiti", "display_name": "Haiti", "fifa_team_code": "HAI", "confederation": "CONCACAF", "fifa_ranking": 83, "elo_rating": 1532, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 3, "draws": 4, "losses": 3, "goals_for": 12, "goals_against": 11 }, "rp8_power_index": 47, "attack_index": 39, "defense_index": 59, "form_index": 46, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Dark Horse", "championship_probability_range": "0.5–2%", "knockout_potential": "Low", "upset_risk": "High", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Haiti in the 'Dark Horse' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #83 and an Elo of 1532. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 3W-4D-3L with a goal difference of +1, which shapes their form index. Head coach Sebastien MIGNE provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 0.5–2% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official World Cup 2026 Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/news/road-to-2026-fifa-world-cup-haiti/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Haiti", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/HAI", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Haiti national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43908&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Curaçao", "official_team_name": "Curaçao", "display_name": "Curaçao", "fifa_team_code": "CUW", "confederation": "CONCACAF", "fifa_ranking": 82, "elo_rating": 1436, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 3, "draws": 4, "losses": 3, "goals_for": 19, "goals_against": 10 }, "rp8_power_index": 45, "attack_index": 31, "defense_index": 59, "form_index": 51, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Dark Horse", "championship_probability_range": "0.5–2%", "knockout_potential": "Low", "upset_risk": "High", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Curaçao in the 'Dark Horse' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #82 and an Elo of 1436. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 3W-4D-3L with a goal difference of +9, which shapes their form index. Head coach Fred RUTTEN provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 0.5–2% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "FIFA Official World Cup 2026 Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/news/road-to-2026-fifa-world-cup-haiti/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Curaçao", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/CUW", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Curaçao national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cura%C3%A7ao_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=1895293&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "New Zealand", "official_team_name": "New Zealand", "display_name": "New Zealand", "fifa_team_code": "NZL", "confederation": "OFC", "fifa_ranking": 85, "elo_rating": 1585, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 2, "draws": 1, "losses": 7, "goals_for": 11, "goals_against": 13 }, "rp8_power_index": 44, "attack_index": 30, "defense_index": 58, "form_index": 30, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Dark Horse", "championship_probability_range": "0.5–2%", "knockout_potential": "Low", "upset_risk": "High", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places New Zealand in the 'Dark Horse' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #85 and an Elo of 1585. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 2W-1D-7L with a goal difference of -2, which shapes their form index. Head coach Darren BAZELEY provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 0.5–2% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "OFC Official Qualification Page", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/new-zealand-qualify-world-cup", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - New Zealand", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/NZL", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - New Zealand men's national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_men's_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43978&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Qatar", "official_team_name": "Qatar", "display_name": "Qatar", "fifa_team_code": "QAT", "confederation": "AFC", "fifa_ranking": 55, "elo_rating": 1425, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 1, "draws": 3, "losses": 6, "goals_for": 7, "goals_against": 18 }, "rp8_power_index": 42, "attack_index": 42, "defense_index": 52, "form_index": 22, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Dark Horse", "championship_probability_range": "0.5–2%", "knockout_potential": "Low", "upset_risk": "High", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Qatar in the 'Dark Horse' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #55 and an Elo of 1425. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 1W-3D-6L with a goal difference of -11, which shapes their form index. Head coach Julen LOPETEGUI provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 0.5–2% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "AFC Official Qualification Review", "source_url": "https://www.fifa.com/en/articles/asia-world-cup-qualification-review", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Qatar", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/QAT", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Qatar national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43834&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] }, { "team_name": "Ghana", "official_team_name": "Ghana", "display_name": "Ghana", "fifa_team_code": "GHA", "confederation": "CAF", "fifa_ranking": 74, "elo_rating": 1505, "recent_form_record": { "matches": 10, "wins": 4, "draws": 1, "losses": 5, "goals_for": 6, "goals_against": 22 }, "rp8_power_index": 42, "attack_index": 24, "defense_index": 46, "form_index": 36, "squad_depth_signal": 40, "coach_stability_signal": 80, "contender_tier": "Dark Horse", "championship_probability_range": "0.5–2%", "knockout_potential": "Low", "upset_risk": "High", "ai_scenario_summary": "RP8 scenario model places Ghana in the 'Dark Horse' tier, based on a FIFA ranking of #74 and an Elo of 1505. Their recent 10-match form profile shows 4W-1D-5L with a goal difference of -16, which shapes their form index. Head coach Carlos QUEIROZ provides a confirmed coaching signal, contributing to their squad stability score. Their scenario championship probability range is 0.5–2% — an editorial estimate, not market odds and not a guarantee.", "model_notes": "RP8 scenario estimates are editorial model outputs based on source-backed football data (FIFA ranking, Elo, recent 10 matches, coach, watchlist). Not official FIFA probabilities. Not betting odds. Not betting advice.", "market_signal_available": false, "market_implied_probability": null, "market_source": "not_connected", "market_notes": "Market-implied signal requires licensed or permitted odds API data.", "last_updated": "2026-05-13", "sources": [ { "source_name": "CAF Official Qualified Teams Page", "source_url": "https://www.cafonline.com/fifa-world-cup/news/record-10-african-teams-to-feature-at-2026-world-cup/", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "qualification_status", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T23:27:46.406053", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Public official fact", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Verified against official announcement." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Men's World Ranking API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/rankings/?gender=1&count=300&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": [ "current_fifa_ranking", "fifa_ranking_points", "fifa_ranking_date" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA ranking data; use as factual ranking attribution, not as predictive probability.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution" }, { "source_name": "World Football Elo Ratings", "source_url": "https://www.eloratings.net/World.tsv", "source_type": "public_rating_table", "field_supported": [ "elo_rating", "elo_rank" ], "fetched_at": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:43:26.064Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "World Football Elo Ratings is a public Elo-style rating source and is not FIFA official data; verify reuse terms before publication beyond internal analysis.", "usage_allowed": "internal_fact_base_with_attribution_pending_terms_review" }, { "source_name": "FIFA Association Profile - Ghana", "source_url": "https://inside.fifa.com/associations/GHA", "source_type": "official", "field_supported": "head_coach", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T19:54:24.037Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA association profile data. Use as factual attribution; re-verify regularly because head coach is a high-change field.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Extracted from FIFA association profile organization members where role equals National Coach Men." }, { "source_name": "Wikipedia - Ghana national football team", "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghana_national_football_team", "source_type": "auxiliary", "field_supported": "key_players_watchlist", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:01:56.040Z", "confidence_level": "medium", "license_notes": "Wikipedia content is user-editable and licensed under CC BY-SA; treat as auxiliary only and verify before public high-confidence use.", "attribution_required": true, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display_with_attribution_review", "notes": "Potential watchlist source only. not an official tournament squad selection." }, { "source_name": "FIFA Official Calendar Matches API", "source_url": "https://api.fifa.com/api/v3/calendar/matches?from=2024-01-01T00:00:00Z&to=2026-05-14T23:59:59Z&idTeam=43860&count=100&language=en", "source_type": "official_api", "field_supported": "recent_matches", "last_verified": "2026-05-13T20:10:13.595Z", "confidence_level": "high", "license_notes": "Official FIFA match calendar/results API data. Use as factual match result attribution; verify terms before broad republication.", "attribution_required": false, "usage_allowed": "internal_analysis_and_public_fact_display", "notes": "Recent results data window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-14; no predictions." } ] } ]